EB-1A approval rate fell to 32%. What the USCIS numbers actually say

By the Porttus team · Published October 28, 2026

Anyone who has read about EB-1A this year has seen the number: roughly one in three approved. It is real, and it is easy to misread.

Our blog posts are meant to share general information, not legal advice.

The numbers

USCIS publishes approvals and denials every quarter. The table shows the approval rate by quarter, computed from USCIS data as approvals divided by approvals plus denials.

Quarter	EB-1A (I-140)	EB-2 NIW (I-140)	O (O-1 and O-2, I-129)
Q1 FY25 (Oct–Dec 2024)	74.7%	62.7%	94.4%
Q2 FY25	72.7%	67.3%	94.6%
Q3 FY25	66.5%	54.0%	93.8%
Q4 FY25	53.4%	35.7%	92.7%
Q1 FY26	47.5%	42.5%	91.0%
Q2 FY26	41.8%	48.1%	91.2%
Q3 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2026)	32.2%	55.3%	91.0%

In the latest quarter, USCIS approved 1,348 EB-1A petitions and denied 2,832. The O column covers all O-classification petitions (O-1 and O-2), initial decisions only.

EB-1A fell in each of the last six quarters, from 74.7% to 32.2%.
NIW dropped and then recovered. It bottomed at 35.7% in Q4 FY25 and reached 55.3% in Q3 FY26, still below the 67.3% of Q2 FY25.
O approvals barely moved, between 91.0% and 94.6% throughout.

What the numbers do not show

They are not a cohort. The quarterly rate is approvals divided by approvals plus denials decided in that quarter. A petition filed in 2024 and decided in 2026 counts in 2026. The rate describes how USCIS is deciding now, not the odds for a petition filed today.

They mix every kind of petition. The American Immigration Council reports that pending I-140 petitions reached 180,439 at the end of FY2025, the highest level in a decade, and that NIW filings nearly tripled between FY2022 and FY2025. USCIS data now shows 203,204 pending at 30 June 2026. When filings grow that fast, weak or template-based petitions can pull the average down. A well-documented petition does not behave like the average.

They do not explain the drop. Nobody outside USCIS can say exactly why EB-1A fell. Stricter reading of the criteria and weaker filings are among the explanations people offer. That is interpretation, not data, and we treat every single explanation with caution, ours included.

Q4 FY26 (July–September 2026) had not been published as of 18 October 2026. This table needs a new row when it appears.

Which category fits

The category follows the evidence, not the average:

EB-1A fits sustained, documented recognition: media coverage, judging, awards, high pay, leading roles at distinguished organizations. Meeting the criteria on paper is not enough: officers also weigh the whole record in a final merits determination.
NIW (EB-2) fits people whose proposed work has national importance, even without top-of-field recognition. Its approval rate has partly recovered, and for some countries there is a visa-bulletin wait (see our October bulletin post).
O-1 is a temporary visa, not a green card. For many people outside the US or early in their careers it is the entry point, and it can come before EB-1A or NIW.

Our own figures: we have prepared 300+ petitions. About 76% of our employment-based petitions were approved, and every O-1 we filed was approved. This is our own count and is not comparable with USCIS's quarterly rate: we choose which cases to file, and we tell some people to wait. We give it so the average is not the only reference point.

What this means in practice

A single percentage says little about one case. What matters is whether the evidence survives an officer looking for a reason to deny. A free 2-minute assessment shows where a profile stands: app.porttus.ai/assessment

Take your free assessment

Sources

USCIS Form I-140 quarterly data (fiscal year 2025 Q4 and fiscal year 2026 Q3 files) and USCIS Form I-129 data, category O (same releases), rates computed by us; American Immigration Council, "From Petition to Permanent Residence" (17 Aug 2026).

Not legal advice. Consult a licensed attorney for your specific case.